After a big stress this year BRL seems to be trying to recover some ground recently. If it wasn't always hard to deal with EM currencies, a very important election turns things to a nightmare. Will try here to break through some of the noise to find some sense of the recent market. As the candidates are finally showing up in the media recently, market seems to be realizing that there is no chaotic scenario even with a less liked candidate. To make things even better, a perfect candidate in the market's view is showing some life now. That might be too early but some risks must be discounted in the price after all... technically USDBRL is trying to break some important levels now. comparing with a EM basket since last year is possible to see that a lot of bad news have been priced... specially if compared to a more fundamental long term view... also looking through a model based on PPP, country risk and commodities... I ran a simple simulation with