One of the biggest question (or the billion question) now is probably if the world and US is heading to a recession as the late cycle is not even a question any longer, as recent ECB and FED turn in monetary policy shows. After a few years of a synchronized global growth ( Link ) a very sharp deceleration in activity awoke markets and central banks late last years. To make things even scary in the market perspective the famous and widely watched 10 years minus 3 month US treasury curve went through the negative territory also (for the more optimists the 2Y x 10Y is still positive). If not big part of the problem trade wars certainly didn't help a late cycle economy but its hard to tell by how much. So this time is no different many would say. And they are right However (yes), the timing could be a bit different this time. First there are some signs of stabilization already on OECD composite leading indicators for Europe (who would guess that!!!) and china, with both impacting