Pular para o conteúdo principal

Global Trade


Quick post here. I have been following a bunch of indexes and proxies of global trade volume for a while. I think its very important not just because we can have a picture of global growth, specially for emerging markets, but also because as commodities has in general become more traded by large numbers and types of players, including financial institutions, they have become more prone to herding behavior in the short time and sometimes losing its status as a proxy of global trade.

Well, what most of them have been showing recently is that so far global trade measured in volume keep improving. Below some charts of those indexes:


CPB global trade volume and prices


RWI Container Throughput Index



 
next, Cass Freight Index and Intermodal Traffic Index. Both are more related to US trade but also corroborating with the idea of a more healthy global trade



 
I don't like much the Baltic dry index because it also has the component of supply/demand of ships affecting it but if you like it...




Last but not least, it seems even Dr Copper is telling the same story. 





Will keep following them closely and give the heads up if the picture changes.


Comentários

Postar um comentário

Postagens mais visitadas deste blog

BRL very expensive?

I read this news (link below) yesterday that indicates that BRL might be very expensive according to three models from Deutsche Bank. Though I don't have access to those models metrics, it got my attention because that information doesn't really fit very well with some simple models I run. I know there are lots of ways to model FX and as everyone might know its not a very easy market to figure out, specially for EM, where lots of feedback loops between country risk and FX rate happens and you can have long and short term models. Another point, specially for the PPP metric is the timeframe chosed. Anyway, just decided to post my findings here because they contrast with the DB picture. They might be right but here is my view: Business Insider (Australia) link for the news:  https://www.businessinsider.com.au/currency-valuations-september-deutsche-bank-2017-10 That's DB chart... My Behavioral model based on Commodities and CDS (YoY %) PPP metrics based on C...
Postar um comentário
Leia mais

BRL

BRL and other brazilian assets have run quite a wild path last 4 years. From the “country of the future” to most hated EM and now to some “OK back to business”. No intention to tell the whole story again now once most know it very well. What calls my attention now is that perhaps once the excesses of the downside relative to other currencies has worked out it seems now for me that the optimism has also run its course in relative value to other EM's. Important to notice the “relative” because I still believe commodities has a way to go up so BRL will still benefit from it but Im concerned the “very cheap” is behind, both in relative value and also in fundamental terms. Currency is probably one of the worst markets to predict. Besides many factors acting at the the same time they also change in importance during the time. Not to say that sometimes it seems no fundamental factor works at all. But sure tones of models can be made and at least we are not in the midd...
Postar um comentário
Leia mais

It's no different this time...but the "timing"...

One of the biggest question (or the billion question) now is probably if the world and US is heading to a recession as the late cycle is not even a question any longer, as recent ECB and FED turn in monetary policy shows. After a few years of a synchronized global growth ( Link ) a very sharp deceleration in activity awoke markets and central banks late last years. To make things even scary in the market perspective the famous and widely watched 10 years minus 3 month US treasury curve went through the negative territory also (for the more optimists the 2Y x 10Y is still positive). If not big part of the problem trade wars certainly didn't help a late cycle economy but its hard to tell by how much. So this time is no different many would say. And they are right However (yes), the timing could be a bit different this time. First there are some signs of stabilization already on OECD composite leading indicators for Europe (who would guess that!!!) and china, with both impacting ...
Postar um comentário
Leia mais