Global USD still alive

It seems to be clear from the last few days that USD index (broad and narrow) is not dead. After a long cliff since Trump's election it seems now to have found a bottom in the short term, and probably medium term also. Signs of a bit stronger inflation in US and weaker than expected Euro numbers have worked their way through the currency market despite the narratives of US twin deficits that had been hovering around. As usual, narratives and bondwagon effect have their influence in the short run, specially when supported by rate differences. Some charts below with recent trend and short/medium term aspects to watch.

USD spot index...trend is (or was) your friend?

short positioning of Non commercial players

2 years rate difference between US and other G7

German DAX/SPX relative value and EUR lag year %

Euro/US core CPI difference and EUR lag Year %

and finally unemployment rate difference between G7 and US. Despite the short term influences in the charts discussed above, its possible to see that on medium/long term things have not changed much so far.

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