Global Trade

Quick post here. I have been following a bunch of indexes and proxies of global trade volume for a while. I think its very important not just because we can have a picture of global growth, specially for emerging markets, but also because as commodities has in general become more traded by large numbers and types of players, including financial institutions, they have become more prone to herding behavior in the short time and sometimes losing its status as a proxy of global trade.

Well, what most of them have been showing recently is that so far global trade measured in volume keep improving. Below some charts of those indexes:

CPB global trade volume and prices

RWI Container Throughput Index

next, Cass Freight Index and Intermodal Traffic Index. Both are more related to US trade but also corroborating with the idea of a more healthy global trade

I don't like much the Baltic dry index because it also has the component of supply/demand of ships affecting it but if you like it...

Last but not least, it seems even Dr Copper is telling the same story.

Will keep following them closely and give the heads up if the picture changes.

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